Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies outlasted the Baltimore Orioles 5-3 in eleven innings on June 14, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, erasing the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 51 percent home win probability and driving it to zero by the final out. Baltimore held a 3-2 lead entering extras and appeared positioned to close it out, but the Phillies pushed across the decisive runs in the top of the eleventh to secure the road victory. The game turned on a handful of high-leverage moments that swung the win-probability needle dramatically in both directions across the final innings.

The most pivotal sequence unfolded across the tenth and eleventh innings, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifting violently with each at-bat. Edmundo Sosa's single off Yennier Cano in the top of the tenth added 32.0 percent in win probability, and Kyle Schwarber followed with a single off Cionel Pérez that swung another 43.8 percent, tying the game. Baltimore answered in the bottom half when Anthony Santander lofted a flyout off Orion Kerkering that, in stranding the ghost runner, actually shifted 42.3 percent in Philadelphia's favor. Santander had earlier been the offensive engine for Baltimore, connecting on a home run off Matt Strahm in the eighth that swung 24.5 percent toward the Orioles and gave them what briefly looked like a cushion. He finished as the top WPA performer overall at plus-64.3 percent despite being on the losing side. The killing blow came in the eleventh when Alec Bohm doubled off Jacob Webb, a hit worth 49.8 percent in win probability that broke the game open and put the Phillies ahead for good.

Among Philadelphia's standouts, Bohm finished with a WPA of plus-54.4 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.8, reflecting his clutch production in the game's decisive moments. Schwarber contributed plus-39.7 percent WPA and plus-0.9 RE24. On the mound, Ranger Suarez led all pitchers with plus-30.2 percent WPA, with Keegan Akin adding plus-20.0 percent and Craig Kimbrel contributing plus-13.5 percent as the Philadelphia bullpen ultimately quieted Baltimore's offense across the game's final frames.