San Diego Padres at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 4 | 1 |
The Story
The New York Mets defeated the San Diego Padres 2-1 at Citi Field on June 14, 2024, in a tightly contested game that remained scoreless through the first two innings before New York seized control in the third. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the Mets holding a near-even 49% home win probability, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the third inning when J.D. Martinez lined a double off Matt Waldron, swinging the win probability by +18.9 percentage points and proving to be the single most impactful offensive play of the game. Martinez finished as the top batter by WPA at +13.4% with a RE24 of +1.1, anchoring what became the Mets' two-run frame. San Diego answered with a solo home run from Jackson Merrill off Sean Manaea in the top of the fifth, a swing worth +10.7% in win probability from the Padres' perspective that briefly tightened the contest. However, Fernando Tatis Jr. grounded out in the sixth against Adam Ottavino in a critical spot, costing San Diego 11.3 percentage points of win probability and effectively stalling any momentum toward a comeback.
The Mets' bullpen ultimately sealed the outcome. Adam Ottavino led all pitchers with a +19.5% WPA, while Edwin Díaz closed things out in the ninth despite allowing a single to Jurickson Profar that shifted the win probability by +10.6 points. Díaz recovered to strike out Jake Cronenworth, the game's second-largest swing at -12.7% for the Padres, finishing with a +15.2% WPA for the closer. Sean Reid-Foley also contributed +10.8% WPA out of the bullpen. Brandon Nimmo chipped in offensively at +5.1% WPA for New York, as the Mets held on to preserve their one-run margin.