New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals defeated the New York Yankees 4-3 on June 13, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium in a game that was decided in the final at-bat. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Kansas City a 41 percent chance of winning, a figure that would ultimately reach 100 percent, though not before the Yankees mounted a significant late charge. Kansas City scored twice in the fourth inning and held that lead deep into the game, but New York erupted for three runs in the top of the eighth to take the lead and appeared poised to walk away with the victory.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth against Yankees closer Clay Holmes. With Kansas City trailing by a run and facing elimination from the contest, Maikel Garcia laced a walk-off double that swung win probability by 82.3 percentage points, the single largest play of the game by a wide margin. That one swing erased New York's lead entirely and delivered the Royals their victory. The Yankees had clawed back in the eighth largely on the strength of a Juan Soto single off Angel Zerpa, worth plus-14.7 percent in win probability, and an Anthony Rizzo home run off John Schreiber that carried equal WPA value. Kansas City also had a near-turning point in that same inning when Nelson Velazquez struck out against Luke Weaver, a swing of minus-22.1 percent that briefly appeared to seal New York's advantage.
Garcia finished as the game's most impactful player with a cumulative WPA of plus-76.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.5, his ninth-inning double rendering everything before it secondary. Vinnie Pasquantino contributed meaningfully as well, posting a plus-23.0 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, with his fourth-inning double off Nestor Cortes providing Kansas City's early foundation worth plus-14.5 percent in win probability. On the pitching side, Alec Marsh was the Royals' most valuable arm at plus-39.8 percent WPA, with Luke Weaver adding plus-23.3 percent in win probability despite the Yankees' eighth-inning surge coming on his watch.