Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 5-4 on June 12, 2024, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Milwaukee win opening at 64% before the game and closing at 100%. The game turned almost entirely on a five-run sixth inning that erased a 1-0 Toronto lead and gave the Brewers a cushion they never relinquished. Through the first five innings, Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt was the dominant force on the field, finishing with the highest WPA among all pitchers at +35.6%, a figure that reflects how thoroughly he suppressed Milwaukee's offense before the bullpen took over.

The decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the sixth against Zach Pop and Tim Mayza. Christian Yelich's single off Mayza moved the win probability needle 12.3 points in Milwaukee's favor, and Willy Adames followed with a home run that added another 14.2 points. The killing blow came from William Contreras, whose single off Pop carried a +27.7% win-probability swing, the single largest play of the game and the moment the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifted decisively toward Milwaukee. Contreras finished as the top positional performer by WPA at +21.4% with a RE24 of +1.1, while Yelich posted the best RE24 among hitters at +1.4 to go with his +14.5% WPA.

Toronto mounted a late charge in the ninth against Trevor Megill, with Bo Bichette delivering a single that added +20.5% win probability and ranked as the second-largest individual play of the contest, finishing with +16.5% WPA and a RE24 of +1.0. However, Alejandro Kirk's sacrifice fly in the same inning came as a net negative for the Blue Jays at -17.6% WPA, reflecting how the rally fell short of reversing Milwaukee's advantage. Tobias Myers contributed +14.2% WPA out of the Brewers bullpen, and Megill held on for the final outs to close out the 5-4 victory.