Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The San Francisco Giants defeated the Houston Astros 5-3 at Oracle Park on June 12, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate supported from the outset, assigning the Giants a 58 percent pre-game home win probability that climbed to 100 percent by the final out. San Francisco built its advantage in the middle innings, with Matt Chapman's third-inning double off Framber Valdez providing the game's single largest positive swing for the Giants at plus 12.0 percent win probability, and Brett Wisely extending the lead with a double of his own in the fourth that added another 8.8 percent. Houston managed its most meaningful response in the sixth when Yordan Alvarez deposited a home run off Logan Webb, a swing worth plus 12.6 percent win probability that briefly tightened the game, but the Astros could not sustain the pressure. José Abreu grounded into a double play in the seventh against Ryan Walker, costing Houston 11.8 percent in win probability, and Alvarez himself erased further opportunity with a double play groundout in the eighth off Tyler Rogers, a minus 8.9 percent swing that effectively closed the door.

Austin Slater led all position players by WPA, finishing at plus 13.0 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.3, while Alvarez was the standout for Houston despite the team's loss, posting a plus 8.3 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24 across his mixed night. Wisely added plus 8.0 percent WPA in support of San Francisco's offense. The Giants' bullpen was equally decisive, with Tyler Rogers, Ryan Walker, and Camilo Doval contributing plus 8.1, plus 7.2, and plus 6.3 percent WPA respectively as they protected the lead through the game's final stages. Houston finished with two errors against none for San Francisco, a discrepancy that further reflected the clean execution that carried the Giants to the victory.