Colorado Rockies at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies erased a 70 percent pre-game home win probability assigned by the DiamondIQ model and stunned the Minnesota Twins 5-4 at Target Field on June 11, 2024, with the decisive action concentrated in a handful of high-leverage moments. Colorado broke a scoreless tie in the top of the sixth with a grand slam from Ezequiel Tovar off Caleb Thielbar, a swing that shifted win probability 23.6 points in the Rockies' favor and effectively flipped the complexion of the game in a single at-bat. Minnesota responded with Byron Buxton's home run off Victor Vodnik in the bottom of the seventh, a 15.2-point swing that kept the Twins within striking distance, but Jalen Beeks neutralized a threatening frame by inducing a double play from Jose Miranda that swung probability 9.5 points back toward Colorado. Ryan McMahon extended the lead with a home run off Cole Sands in the top of the eighth, adding another 11.4 points of win probability to the Rockies' column.

Minnesota drew within one run with a two-run ninth but could not complete the comeback, as Tyler Kinley retired Miranda on a strikeout to end the game, a single out that represented the largest single-play probability swing of the night at 31.6 points. By that final out, the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Minnesota win had collapsed from 70 percent at first pitch to zero. Tovar finished as the game's top performer by win probability added at plus-29.2 with a RE24 of plus-2.1, while Miranda's late-game strikeout paradoxically left him second on the leaderboard at plus-22.1 despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.6 that reflected his overall struggles on the night. On the mound, Cal Quantrill led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-35.9, with Jalen Beeks contributing plus-14.7 and Louis Varland adding plus-12.4 to secure the Rockies' unlikely road victory.