Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

San Diego walked off with a 4-3 victory over Oakland at Petco Park on June 11, 2024, in a game that opened with the DiamondIQ model's estimate placing the Padres at a 67 percent pre-game win probability and closed with the model at 100 percent following Kyle Higashioka's decisive blow. The Padres built their early advantage in the fifth inning, when Luis Arraez and Jurickson Profar each delivered singles off JP Sears — Arraez's hit carrying a win-probability swing of plus-12.1 percent and Profar's plus-20.1 percent — as San Diego pushed across three runs to take a 3-1 lead after Oakland had scored once in the first.

Oakland mounted a serious threat in the eighth, when Tyler Soderstrom connected on a two-run home run off Enyel De Los Santos, a swing worth plus-27.7 percent in win probability that erased the San Diego advantage and knotted the game at three. The Athletics had a chance to add more in that frame, but the Padres' bullpen kept the deficit from deepening. In the bottom of the eighth, Jackson Merrill's lineout off Scott Alexander cost San Diego minus-14.3 percent in win probability, leaving the game deadlocked heading to the ninth. Higashioka then ended the contest immediately, depositing a walk-off home run off Alexander into the San Diego night for a swing of plus-35.9 percent that gave the Padres the final margin.

Among the individual performances, Soderstrom led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus-36.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.0, while Higashioka posted plus-33.2 percent WPA despite his lone decisive contribution. Profar also stood out at plus-15.5 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24 for his fifth-inning work. On the pitching side, Robert Suarez paced San Diego's relief corps with plus-15.9 percent WPA, followed by Adrian Morejon at plus-7.2 percent and Randy Vásquez at plus-6.9 percent. The Padres finished with ten hits against Oakland's nine, and neither team committed an error across the nine innings.