Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles handed the Tampa Bay Rays a 5-2 defeat at Tropicana Field on June 10, 2024, handing the home side a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate had foreshadowed from the outset, with pre-game home win probability set at just 35 percent before falling to 0 percent by the final out. Baltimore spread its five runs across four innings, collecting 11 hits while the Rays managed only five, and the Orioles' ability to convert traffic into runs proved to be the decisive difference throughout the afternoon.

The game's most consequential sequence arrived in the top of the fifth inning, when Ryan O'Hearn laced a double off Ryan Pepiot that shifted win probability 22.3 percentage points in Baltimore's favor, the single largest swing of the contest. O'Hearn had already contributed earlier, as James McCann's solo home run off Pepiot in the third inning added 10.5 percentage points, and O'Hearn extended his damage with a single off Kevin Kelly in the seventh worth another 9.0 percentage points. Tampa Bay's best moment came in the bottom of the second, when Alex Jackson connected for a home run off Corbin Burnes to generate a 14.6-point swing, briefly giving the Rays life, but Amed Rosario's grounded into double play in the sixth inning off Burnes erased 11.8 percentage points of Tampa Bay's remaining hope.

O'Hearn finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer by a considerable margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-30.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.8 across his two key hits. McCann contributed plus-12.3 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, while Jackson led Tampa Bay's ledger at plus-10.3 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24 despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Corbin Burnes was the standout, generating plus-12.8 percent WPA by limiting the Rays despite the Jackson home run, with Yennier Cano adding plus-5.2 percent WPA in relief to help Baltimore close out the road victory.