Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-1 at Busch Stadium on June 9, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from the outset, opening the game with a 67% home win probability that climbed steadily to 100% by the final out. St. Louis built its advantage methodically through the middle innings, scoring in the second, third, fourth, and sixth frames while holding Colorado to a single run in the ninth, finishing with ten hits against just five for the visitors, who also committed an error.

The Cardinals' decisive stretch came in the third and fourth innings, where the two biggest win-probability swings of the game unfolded against Rockies starter Ty Blach. Alec Burleson's home run in the bottom of the third added 9.4 percentage points to St. Louis's win probability, and Masyn Winn's single in the bottom of the fourth provided an even larger swing of 12.4 percentage points, representing the single most impactful plate appearance of the contest. Dylan Carlson's double in the second inning added another 4.5 points, layering pressure on Blach through the heart of the order. Colorado's best moment came in the top of the third when Adael Amador singled off Andre Pallante for a 4.1-point swing, but that threat went unrealized.

Among position players, Burleson finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 10.7% with a RE24 of plus 1.3, followed closely by Winn at plus 9.4% and plus 1.1. On the pitching side, Pallante led all hurlers with a WPA of plus 10.8%, with Matthew Liberatore contributing plus 3.3% in support. The Cardinals' pitching staff combined to hold Colorado largely in check, and the model leans toward St. Louis having controlled this contest with minimal variance from the expected outcome.