MLB Recap · June 9, 2024

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

BAL9
Final
TB2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BAL0011012409130
TB000002000260

The Story

The Baltimore Orioles handed the Tampa Bay Rays a 9-2 defeat at Tropicana Field on June 9, 2024, a result that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Rays win fall from 36% before the first pitch all the way to 0% by the final out. Baltimore built its lead methodically, scoring in the third, fourth, sixth, seventh, and eighth innings while limiting Tampa Bay to two runs, finishing with 13 hits against six for the home side. Grayson Rodriguez led the pitching staff with a game-high plus-10.5% win-probability contribution, while Cionel Pérez added another plus-6.3% to keep the Rays offense in check throughout.

The pivotal sequence arrived across the sixth and seventh innings, where the game's largest individual win-probability swings unfolded. In the bottom of the sixth, Randy Arozarena provided Tampa Bay's most significant moment of the night, a single off Dillon Tate that shifted win probability by plus-13.5%, representing the Rays' best and ultimately insufficient rally attempt after they scored two runs that frame. Baltimore responded decisively in the top of the seventh, where Cedric Mullins laced a triple off Garrett Cleavinger worth plus-11.6%, and Ryan Mountcastle followed with a groundout that still generated plus-11.0% in win probability as the Orioles pushed across runs. Colton Cowser's triple off Zack Littell in the top of the sixth had already tilted the game sharply Baltimore's way at plus-10.5%, and Anthony Santander's home run off Littell in the fourth, worth plus-10.4%, set the tone for the Orioles' offensive dominance.

On the individual ledger, Arozarena finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-15.6% despite being on the losing side, adding 0.9 RE24 in a performance that ultimately could not overcome the Baltimore surge. Adley Rutschman was the standout among Orioles position players, posting plus-13.1% WPA and a team-best plus-3.5 RE24, while Mullins contributed plus-9.4% WPA to round out the most impactful performers of the night. Baltimore's four-run eighth inning closed any remaining doubt, completing a thorough road victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BAL bats firstFinalTB win %BAL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 35.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Randy Arozarena Single
Bot 6th · off Dillon Tate
+13.5%
Cedric Mullins Triple
Top 7th · off Garrett Cleavinger
+11.6%
Ryan Mountcastle Groundout
Top 7th · off Garrett Cleavinger
+11.0%
Colton Cowser Triple
Top 6th · off Zack Littell
+10.5%
Anthony Santander Home Run
Top 4th · off Zack Littell
+10.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Randy Arozarena+15.6%+0.9 RE24
Adley Rutschman+13.1%+3.5 RE24
Cedric Mullins+9.4%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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