Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 2 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
The Story
The Colorado Rockies overcame a four-run Cardinals sixth inning to beat St. Louis 6-5 at Busch Stadium on June 8, 2024, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 66 percent pre-game home win probability for the Cardinals down to zero by the final out. The decisive sequence unfolded across the sixth and seventh innings, where the Cardinals briefly seized control before Colorado stormed back. Paul Goldschmidt's fielders choice in the bottom of the sixth was the single largest swing of the game, shifting win probability 31.1 points in St. Louis's favor off Ryan Feltner, and Matt Carpenter added a home run off Victor Vodnik in the bottom of the seventh that moved the needle another 15.6 points for the Cardinals. Those contributions, however, were ultimately not enough.
Ezequiel Tovar was the central figure in Colorado's comeback, delivering the biggest blow of the night with a home run off Andrew Kittredge in the top of the seventh that swung win probability 26.7 points in the Rockies' favor and gave Colorado a lead it would not relinquish. Tovar finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-43.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.7, edging out Matt Carpenter, whose plus-40.5 WPA reflected his own strong night despite his team's loss. Paul Goldschmidt contributed a plus-21.9 WPA and plus-2.2 RE24 for St. Louis, but the Cardinals managed only five hits against Colorado's pitching staff.
On the mound, Jalen Beeks was the standout reliever, posting a plus-23.3 WPA as Colorado's bullpen preserved the slim margin. Chris Roycroft added plus-11.0 WPA in support, while starter Ryan Feltner finished at minus-6.0 WPA after a damaging sixth inning. The game's final drama came in the bottom of the ninth, where Brendan Donovan's double off Tyler Kinley briefly threatened at plus-17.0 WPA, but Matt Carpenter's subsequent pop out sealed the Cardinals' fate at plus-21.4 WPA for Colorado, completing a road win that flipped an overwhelming pre-game probability entirely on its head.