MLB Recap · June 8, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

AZ1
Final
SD13

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
AZ000010000152
SD04044100-13140

The Story

The San Diego Padres routed the Arizona Diamondbacks 13-1 at Petco Park on June 8, 2024, in a game that was effectively decided before the third inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the night with San Diego as a 58% favorite, and by the time the final out was recorded that estimate had climbed to 100%, a reflection of how thoroughly the Padres dismantled Arizona across nine innings.

The decisive damage came in the bottom of the second, where San Diego's four-run frame against Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson produced the game's most significant win-probability swings. A Donovan Solano single got things started, adding 2.7% to San Diego's win probability, before a Jurickson Profar groundout contributed an additional 6.3% as runs continued to cross the plate. The inning peaked with Ha-Seong Kim's home run off Nelson, a swing worth 9.3% in win probability. A Jackson Merrill fielders choice, which added 10.6%, was the single biggest probability-shifting play of the contest. San Diego then repeated the four-run formula in the fourth against reliever Logan Allen, with Jake Cronenworth's home run accounting for a 6.7% swing. Arizona's lone run came in the fifth, but the outcome had long been settled by then.

On the individual leaderboard, Merrill finished as the game's top performer with a combined WPA of plus-12.2% and a RE24 of plus-3.3, while Kim posted plus-9.6% WPA and Profar added plus-5.8%. On the mound, starter Matt Waldron was the pitching standout, contributing plus-8.0% WPA as San Diego held Arizona to one run on five hits while committing no errors. The Diamondbacks, by contrast, were charged with two errors on the afternoon, compounding a difficult night at the plate.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalSD win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 57.8% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jackson Merrill Fielders Choice
Bot 2nd · off Ryne Nelson
+10.6%
Ha-Seong Kim Home Run
Bot 2nd · off Ryne Nelson
+9.3%
Jake Cronenworth Home Run
Bot 4th · off Logan Allen
+6.7%
Jurickson Profar Groundout
Bot 2nd · off Ryne Nelson
+6.3%
Donovan Solano Single
Bot 2nd · off Ryne Nelson
+2.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Jackson Merrill+12.2%+3.3 RE24
Ha-Seong Kim+9.6%+1.0 RE24
Jurickson Profar+5.8%+0.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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