Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Cleveland Guardians 3-2 at loanDepot park on June 7, 2024, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had assessed as unlikely at the outset, assigning Miami just a 26% chance of winning before first pitch. The decisive runs were distributed across two innings, with the third inning serving as the offensive centerpiece for both sides. Brayan Rocchio gave Cleveland a lead with a home run off Ryan Weathers, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 18.1 percentage points in the Guardians' favor. Miami answered in the bottom half when Josh Bell connected for a home run off Logan Allen, a plus 11.2 percentage point swing that kept the game level entering the middle frames.

The eighth inning proved to be where the game was ultimately decided, and in two sharply contrasting moments. Daniel Schneemann led off the top half with a triple off Calvin Faucher, a plus 16.2 percentage point swing that put Cleveland in a strong position to extend their lead. Instead, José Ramírez hit into a double play against Tanner Scott, a minus 22.3 percentage point collapse in Cleveland's win probability that effectively stalled the threat. Miami then capitalized immediately in the bottom of the inning, as Jazz Chisholm Jr. singled off Cade Smith for a plus 19.2 percentage point swing that pushed the Marlins ahead for good.

Tanner Scott was the most impactful individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing plus 37.5 percentage points of win probability from the mound, while Emmanuel Ramirez added plus 14.2 percentage points in support. Among position players, Chisholm finished as Miami's top contributor at plus 18.4 WPA and plus 0.7 RE24, with Bryan De La Cruz generating the most run-environment value at plus 1.4 RE24 alongside plus 10.9 WPA. Schneemann led Cleveland's offensive effort at plus 16.2 WPA and plus 0.9 RE24, though his triple ultimately went to waste in a game the Guardians led but could not close.