Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Atlanta Braves 2-1 at Nationals Park on June 7, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 41 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Washington's offense did its damage in a single concentrated burst, plating both of its runs in the fourth inning while Atlanta managed just one run across the entire contest. The Braves finished with six hits against zero errors on the Washington side, while Atlanta committed one error of their own.

The decisive moment of the game came in the top of the ninth inning, when Orlando Arcia grounded into a double play off Kyle Finnegan, a play that swung win probability by negative 22.8 percent in Atlanta's direction and effectively sealed the outcome. The Braves had generated their most dangerous sequence in the eighth inning, when Matt Olson singled off Hunter Harvey for a positive 12.5 percent win-probability swing, and earlier in the sixth, Marcell Ozuna had doubled off Jake Irvin for a positive 13.9 percent swing. However, Ozzie Albies grounded out in that same sixth-inning frame at negative 9.9 percent, blunting Atlanta's momentum before they could capitalize. Adam Duvall's strikeout to end the ninth added a final 10.6 percent swing in Washington's favor.

Jake Irvin was the standout performer on the night, posting a remarkable plus-32.7 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, while Finnegan contributed plus-15.2 percent and Derek Law added plus-7.2 percent in support. Among position players, Nick Senzel led Washington with plus-6.3 percent WPA, with Austin Riley posting plus-6.1 percent and Ozuna contributing plus-5.6 percent despite Atlanta's inability to convert their opportunities into enough runs.