Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - | 8 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Kansas City Royals 8-5 on June 4, 2024, at Progressive Field, handing Kansas City a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming from the outset, with a pre-game home win probability of 63% that climbed to a certainty of 100% by the final out. Kansas City built an early advantage on the back of Bobby Witt Jr., who homered off Triston McKenzie in the third inning for a swing of plus 16.7% win probability and then connected again in the fourth for another plus 12.7%, giving the Royals a 5-3 lead heading into the late innings. Those two blasts made Witt Jr. the most impactful bat in the game by WPA at plus 31.2%, backed by an RE24 of plus 3.6, representing the bulk of Kansas City's offensive production against McKenzie.
Cleveland erased that deficit almost entirely in one chaotic seventh inning that decided the game. The frame opened with a fielding error charged to a Kansas City fielder on a ball reached by David Fry, a play that swung win probability by plus 31.2% in Cleveland's favor against Angel Zerpa. Seth Lugo then entered and surrendered a go-ahead home run to Tyler Freeman, a blow worth plus 26.1% in win probability that gave the Guardians a lead they would not relinquish, capping a five-run seventh that turned a 5-3 Kansas City lead into an 8-5 Cleveland advantage. Lugo had already allowed a Josh Naylor home run in the fourth worth plus 14.7%, making him the central figure in Cleveland's comeback with both of its multi-run swings coming at his expense.
David Fry finished second among position players by WPA at plus 25.9% with an RE24 of plus 1.9, while Freeman contributed plus 20.1% WPA on the strength of his decisive blast. On the mound, the Guardians bullpen protected the lead efficiently, with Cade Smith leading Cleveland's pitchers at plus 8.7% WPA, followed by Scott Barlow at plus 4.5% and Emmanuel Clase at plus 2.4%. Kansas City's error in the seventh proved the turning point the DiamondIQ model identified as the single most consequential moment of the game, opening the door for Freeman's homer to close it out.