Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Miami Marlins 9-5 at loanDepot park on June 4, 2024, in a game that was never particularly close once the visitors got rolling. Miami entered with a 39 percent win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out. The Rays were held scoreless through three innings before erupting for four runs in the fourth and five more in the fifth, a two-inning stretch that effectively buried the Marlins and from which Miami never recovered.

The decisive blow came in the fourth inning when Brandon Lowe connected on a home run off Jesús Luzardo, a swing that shifted win probability by 26.2 percent in Tampa Bay's favor and represented the single largest play of the game. Lowe was not finished against Luzardo, adding a double in the fifth that carried an additional 9.9 percent swing, bringing his total WPA contribution to plus-35.2 percent to go along with a RE24 of plus-4.1, the most impactful performance at the plate on either side. Isaac Paredes extended the fifth-inning damage with a single off Luzardo worth 12.9 percent, finishing the night at plus-10.0 percent WPA. On the Miami side, the most notable negative moment came in the second inning when Jose Siri grounded out against Luzardo with runners on, a play that cost the Rays 11.1 percent win probability at the time.

Tampa Bay's pitching staff held the Marlins to single runs in the seventh and eighth after the game was already well in hand. Among the relievers, Pete Fairbanks led the staff with a WPA of plus-8.9 percent, quietly securing the final margin. Tim Anderson contributed an 8.8 percent WPA swing at the plate for Miami but finished with a RE24 of minus-0.4, underscoring how little the Marlins were ultimately able to convert. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Tampa Bay's offense as the clear story of the night, with Lowe's two-hit, multi-extra-base performance against Luzardo as the unambiguous turning point.