Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 1-0 at PNC Park on June 4, 2024, handing Los Angeles a shutout loss in a game that turned almost entirely on a single swing. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Pittsburgh only a 39% chance of winning at home, but that probability climbed steadily and ultimately reached 100% as the Pirates' pitching staff smothered the Dodgers' offense across nine innings.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the third, when Jack Suwinski launched a home run off Tyler Glasnow that shifted win probability by plus 10.9 percentage points, accounting for the game's only run and its most consequential play. Los Angeles had chances to respond, most notably in the seventh when Gavin Lux delivered a double off Colin Holderman that moved the needle 9.8 points in the Dodgers' favor, but the threat went unfinished. The eighth inning proved particularly damaging for Los Angeles, as Andy Pages struck out against Aroldis Chapman in a spot that cost the Dodgers 10.8 points of win probability, and Teoscar Hernandez followed with a flyout worth minus 8.7 points. Shohei Ohtani also missed an opportunity earlier, grounding into a double play against Jared Jones in the third that erased 8.0 points of Dodger win probability.

Jared Jones was the pillar of the Pittsburgh effort, finishing with a plus 35.0 WPA mark that led all players and reflected how thoroughly he limited a dangerous Los Angeles lineup. David Bednar added plus 15.2 WPA in relief, and Chapman contributed plus 10.8 WPA while closing out the ninth. For the Dodgers, Suwinski's counterpart in WPA terms was catcher Will Smith at plus 5.6, though none of Los Angeles's offensive contributions translated into runs. The model leans toward crediting the Pittsburgh pitching staff, rather than any single tactical decision, as the defining factor in this outcome.