Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies walked off the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in ten innings on June 4, 2024 at Citizens Bank Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game placing the home side at a 65% win probability before climbing to 100% by the final out. Through seven frames the game was a tense, scoreless affair, before a pair of extra-inning sequences decided matters in the Phillies' favor.

The decisive swings came in the eighth and tenth innings. Alec Bohm broke the deadlock with a home run off Elvis Peguero in the bottom of the eighth, a blow that shifted win probability by 21.9 points in Philadelphia's favor. Milwaukee threatened to extend the game into further extras but was stifled in the top of the ninth, where Rhys Hoskins' strikeout against Matt Strahm represented a 18.8-point swing against the Brewers. In the top of the tenth, Brice Turang's fielder's choice out off Seranthony Dominguez cost Milwaukee 18.7 points of win probability, and Blake Perkins' groundout in the same frame swung things 16.4 points back toward Philadelphia by limiting further damage. Nick Castellanos then ended it with a walk-off double off Joel Payamps, a hit worth 28.4 points of win probability added.

By cumulative WPA, Castellanos was the game's top performer at plus-33.7 with a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Perkins posted plus-21.0 and Bohm contributed plus-16.8 despite a negative RE24 of 0.1. On the pitching side, Bryan Hudson led all arms at plus-23.8 WPA, with Colin Rea adding plus-17.9 and Strahm contributing plus-13.5 in his shutdown ninth. The final line showed Milwaukee finishing with seven hits and no errors, but the Brewers were unable to convert against a Phillies staff that held firm when it mattered most.