Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves handed the Boston Red Sox an 8-3 defeat at Fenway Park on June 4, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected emphatically as Boston's win probability fell from 45% before the first pitch to 0% by the final out. Atlanta built its lead incrementally, scoring in the second, fifth, sixth, seventh, and ninth innings while Boston could manage only a run in the third and two in the fourth, never sustaining enough offense to threaten seriously against an Atlanta pitching staff that held firm when it mattered most.

The decisive blow came in the top of the sixth inning, when Ozzie Albies connected on a home run off Kutter Crawford that swung win probability by 31.7 percentage points in Atlanta's favor, the single largest play of the game. That swing was the centerpiece of a three-run sixth that effectively closed out any remaining Boston hope. Boston had its best moments in the fourth inning, where Bobby Dalbec's single off Max Fried shifted win probability 16.2 points toward the home side, and a Jamie Westbrook catcher's interference call added another 9.9 points, briefly keeping Boston competitive. Dominic Smith's home run off Fried in the third had also provided a 10.5-point boost for the Red Sox, but those positive swings were ultimately negated, including Jarren Duran's flyout in the fifth that cost Boston 9.2 points of win probability.

Albies finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating a WPA of plus 33.2% and an RE24 of plus 3.3 to anchor Atlanta's offensive effort. Jamie Westbrook posted a WPA of plus 12.3% and Bobby Dalbec added plus 10.9% to lead Boston's contributors, though their efforts were insufficient to overcome Atlanta's scoring bursts. On the mound, Pierce Johnson led Atlanta's relievers with a WPA of plus 1.2%, while Max Fried's minus 0.4% WPA reflected a start in which he absorbed Boston's modest run production without fully stifling it before the Braves' offense took over.