MLB Recap · June 3, 2024

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

SD1
Final
LAA2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SD100000000161
LAA00010001-240

The Story

The Los Angeles Angels defeated the San Diego Padres 2-1 at Angel Stadium on June 3, 2024, in a low-scoring contest that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked closely through most of the game before settling at 100 percent in favor of Los Angeles by the final out. The Angels entered the night as underdogs, with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability sitting at just 40 percent, but a pair of timely hits and strong pitching kept the Padres offense largely in check across nine innings, with San Diego managing only six hits and committing one error against four hits allowed by Los Angeles.

The decisive sequences came in the fourth and eighth innings. Willie Calhoun's single off Matt Waldron in the bottom of the fourth generated the game's second-largest batting win-probability swing at plus 10.9 percent, giving the Angels their initial foothold. San Diego briefly threatened in the top of the eighth when Jurickson Profar doubled off Hunter Strickland for the game's single largest swing at plus 11.2 percent, pulling the Padres within striking distance. However, Jake Cronenworth's pop out in that same frame swung win probability 9.6 percent back toward Los Angeles, and Jo Adell answered immediately with a double off Adrian Morejon in the bottom half, a plus 10.7 percent swing that effectively sealed the outcome.

The standout individual performances were distributed across both sides. Profar led all batters with a plus 16.1 percent WPA and 0.8 RE24 despite the loss, while Calhoun and Adell each finished with matching 0.9 RE24 marks and WPA figures of plus 13.2 and plus 12.9 percent respectively for the Angels. On the mound, Tyler Anderson led all pitchers with a remarkable plus 28.2 percent WPA, followed by Waldron at plus 21.3 percent and Strickland at plus 18.9 percent, with Strickland's performance coming despite surrendering the Profar double, as his ability to strand runners limited further damage and the model leans toward crediting his overall inning as a net positive for the Angels.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SD bats firstFinalLAA win %SD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 39.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jurickson Profar Double
Top 8th · off Hunter Strickland
+11.2%
Willie Calhoun Single
Bot 4th · off Matt Waldron
+10.9%
Jo Adell Double
Bot 8th · off Adrian Morejon
+10.7%
Jake Cronenworth Pop Out
Top 8th · off Hunter Strickland
-9.6%
David Peralta Flyout
Top 7th · off Hunter Strickland
-8.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Jurickson Profar+16.1%+0.8 RE24
Willie Calhoun+13.2%+0.9 RE24
Jo Adell+12.9%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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