MLB Recap · June 3, 2024

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

BAL7
Final
TOR2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BAL0203001017101
TOR010100000281

The Story

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 7-2 at Rogers Centre on June 3, 2024, handing Toronto a result the DiamondIQ model had anticipated from the outset, having assigned the Blue Jays only a 36% pre-game win probability that collapsed to 0% by the final out. Baltimore broke the game open in the second and fourth innings, combining for five of their seven runs in those two frames while Toronto managed just two across the afternoon.

The decisive stretch came in the fourth inning, where Austin Hays delivered the game's most consequential blow, a home run off Kevin Gausman that shifted win probability 15.4 points in Baltimore's favor. Colton Cowser followed with a double off Gausman that added another 12.0 points, effectively putting the game beyond Toronto's reach. The Blue Jays had shown some early resistance when Daulton Varsho tripled off Grayson Rodriguez in the second inning for an 8.5-point swing, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. added a solo home run in the fourth worth 8.0 points, but Daniel Vogelbach's bases-loaded groundout in the sixth inning, a negative 10.1-point swing against Toronto, extinguished what remained of the home team's chances.

Hays finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating a total of plus-19.0% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.0, while Guerrero Jr. led all Blue Jays batters at plus-16.0% WPA despite playing for the losing side. On the mound, Grayson Rodriguez earned the win and led all pitchers with plus-8.8% WPA, receiving capable relief support from Yennier Cano at plus-3.5% WPA and Brendon Little at plus-0.6% WPA.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BAL bats firstFinalTOR win %BAL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 35.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Austin Hays Home Run
Top 4th · off Kevin Gausman
+15.4%
Colton Cowser Double
Top 4th · off Kevin Gausman
+12.0%
Daniel Vogelbach Grounded Into DP
Bot 6th · off Grayson Rodriguez
-10.1%
Daulton Varsho Triple
Bot 2nd · off Grayson Rodriguez
+8.5%
Bot 4th · off Grayson Rodriguez
+8.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Austin Hays+19.0%+2.0 RE24
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.+16.0%+1.1 RE24
Colton Cowser+12.1%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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