Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins took a 4-3 decision over the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on June 2, 2024, handing Houston a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the home side a 59 percent chance to win. Minnesota scored in four separate innings, plating runs in the first, second, sixth, and eighth, while Houston answered with a two-run third and a run in the second but could not sustain enough offense to overcome the deficit.
The game's decisive moments unfolded in a pair of high-leverage swings. Alex Bregman's home run off Simeon Woods Richardson in the bottom of the third shifted Houston's win probability by 19.1 points and gave the Astros their most dangerous foothold of the night. Minnesota responded in the sixth when Jose Miranda launched a home run off Hunter Brown, a swing worth 13.8 points of win probability that pushed the Twins back in front. Miranda added a double off Ryan Pressly in the eighth for another 12.1-point swing, and his combined WPA of plus-24.9 on the night, paired with a RE24 of plus-1.3, made him Minnesota's most productive offensive contributor. Bregman finished as Houston's top batter with a WPA of plus-20.6 and an RE24 of plus-1.5. Paradoxically, Jon Singleton's flyout to end the ninth registered as the single largest win-probability event of the game at plus-31.6 points, reflecting how much pressure he represented with the game on the line against Jhoan Duran, whose strikeout sealed the final.
On the pitching side, Griffin Jax was Minnesota's most valuable reliever, posting a WPA of plus-23.3, aided in part by Mauricio Dubon's groundout in the eighth that negated a Houston threat and shifted win probability 12.9 points in the Twins' favor. Steven Okert and Jorge Alcala each contributed positive WPA figures of plus-11.2 and plus-8.8, respectively, as the Minnesota bullpen held Houston scoreless over the final six innings to close out the road victory.