Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| CHC | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 7 | 6 | 2 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the Cincinnati Reds 7-5 at Wrigley Field on June 1, 2024, in a game that turned on a pair of home runs and a critical defensive miscue. The DiamondIQ model entered the day giving Chicago a 60% win probability, and that estimate climbed steadily before reaching 100% by the final out. The second inning proved to be the game's most chaotic stretch, with both teams combining for eight runs. Seiya Suzuki's home run off Hunter Greene carried the single biggest offensive swing of the frame for Chicago, adding 22.6% to the Cubs' win probability, while a Luke Maile fielding error on a ball off Justin Steele's delivery handed Cincinnati a 11.1% boost and kept the Reds briefly in contention through the early innings.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the eighth, when Dansby Swanson launched a home run off Lucas Sims that produced the game's largest single win-probability swing, a 30.3% jump that effectively closed the door on any Cincinnati comeback. Swanson finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-25.4%, with a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Suzuki contributed plus-16.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.5, reflecting the broader run-environment value of his second-inning shot. Nico Hoerner also made a meaningful impact, finishing at plus-11.1% WPA. Mike Tauchman's double off Fernando Cruz in the seventh added 9.2% to Chicago's win probability and helped extend the Cubs' cushion heading into the final frames.
On the pitching side, Mark Leiter Jr. led Chicago's staff with plus-10.6% WPA, while Porter Hodge and Fernando Cruz each contributed plus-8.3%. The Reds managed ten hits against a Cubs rotation and bullpen that allowed five runs, but Cincinnati's lone error and an inability to sustain pressure after the second inning proved costly. Chicago's six hits were fewer than Cincinnati's ten, but the Cubs' timely power from Swanson and Suzuki made the difference in a game the DiamondIQ model ultimately assessed as a runaway Cubs victory by the final out.