Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 9-5 on June 1, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in a game that was largely decided in the first four innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring Baltimore at 72% and reached 100% by the final out. The Rays offered an early jolt when Yandy Díaz ripped a triple off Kyle Bradish in the second inning, a play that swung win probability 11.0 points in Tampa Bay's direction and helped fuel a three-run frame for the visitors. Díaz kept the pressure on with a walk against Bradish in the third, adding another 10.0 points of win probability for the Rays, but Baltimore answered emphatically in the bottom half of that same inning. Kyle Stowers doubled off Taj Bradley for a 12.9-point swing, and Jordan Westburg followed with a single worth 11.4 points, as the Orioles posted three runs of their own to reclaim command.

Ryan Mountcastle delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the fourth, depositing a home run off Bradley that shifted the win probability 13.1 points toward Baltimore and effectively closed the door on any Rays comeback. Mountcastle finished as the game's top performer with a WPA of plus-21.5 and an RE24 of plus-3.9, while Díaz led all Rays batters at plus-18.8 WPA and plus-2.7 RE24 despite being on the losing side. Jordan Westburg contributed plus-17.6 WPA for Baltimore. The Rays generated all five of their runs within the first three innings and were then held scoreless the rest of the way, as the Orioles bullpen shut down any further threats. Jacob Webb led Baltimore's relievers with a WPA of plus-15.9, followed by Cionel Pérez at plus-7.2 and Chris Devenski at plus-2.6, securing the final margin with little drama over the game's second half.