Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 3-1 on May 31, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 70% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. The game remained scoreless through five innings before the Orioles broke it open in the bottom of the sixth to score all three of their runs, while Tampa Bay managed its lone run in the top of the second on the way to a 5-hit, 3-run final ledger.

The decisive sequence came in that sixth inning, where Jorge Mateo's double off Phil Maton represented the single biggest swing of the game, adding 25.8 percentage points to Baltimore's win probability. Austin Hays followed with a single off Richard Lovelady that pushed the probability another 18.9 points in the Orioles' favor, effectively closing the door on any Tampa Bay comeback. On the other side, Ramón Urías offset some of his team's production with a flyout in the second inning that cost Baltimore 8.5 percentage points and a strikeout in the sixth that shaved another 8.2 points, while Brandon Lowe's flyout to lead off the seventh removed another 6.5 points from Tampa Bay's dwindling chances.

Aaron Civale led all performers on the mound, finishing with a model-leading plus-35.8% WPA across his outing, providing the foundation that Baltimore's offense eventually rewarded. Danny Coulombe and Craig Kimbrel combined for another 17.3 percentage points of pitching value to close things out. Among position players, Mateo finished as the game's most impactful bat at plus-26.2% WPA and plus-1.6 RE24, with Hays close behind at plus-16.6% WPA and plus-0.9 RE24. Yandy Díaz contributed a modest plus-6.8% WPA on the Tampa Bay side, though it proved insufficient against a Baltimore club that outmatched the Rays in both hits and run production.