Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays outlasted the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-3 in 14 innings on May 31, 2024, at Rogers Centre, a marathon that the DiamondIQ model entered favoring Toronto at 57% and closed at 100% following a walk-off home run from Davis Schneider. The game was scoreless through the first four innings and remained tightly contested deep into extra innings, with neither club managing to pull away through nine frames. Pittsburgh scratched across a run in the fifth, and the two sides exchanged runs through the 11th and 12th before Toronto finally broke the deadlock in the bottom of the 14th.
The decisive turning point came in the bottom of the 11th, when George Springer singled off Hunter Stratton to swing the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 52.3 percentage points, the single largest win-probability shift of the game. Springer finished as the top overall performer by WPA at plus-45.2%, with a RE24 of plus-1.0. The game remained alive into the 14th before Schneider ended it, his home run off Kyle Nicolas carrying a 35.9-point win-probability swing that brought the contest to a close. Kevin Kiermaier also contributed meaningfully, finishing second among position players at plus-33.6% WPA. On the Pittsburgh side, Connor Joe's flyout in the top of the 11th off Nate Pearson registered a 23.1-point swing in Toronto's favor, reflecting how close the Pirates came to extending their lead before the Blue Jays answered.
On the mound, Bailey Falter was Toronto's most impactful arm, posting a plus-33.7% WPA to lead all pitchers. José Berríos contributed plus-18.5%, and Yimi García added plus-13.5% as the Blue Jays bullpen helped preserve the narrow margins through the extended contest. Pittsburgh's Kyle Nicolas absorbed the loss after surrendering the Schneider home run in the 14th, while Carmen Mlodzinski's 12th-inning work saw an Ernie Clement flyout swing the model's estimate 23.7 points toward Toronto. Both clubs finished with six hits apiece and committed no errors, underscoring how fine the margins were until Schneider's decisive blow.