Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 2 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins held off the Kansas City Royals 7-6 on May 30, 2024, at Target Field in a game the DiamondIQ model entered with essentially even odds, assigning Minnesota a 49% pre-game win probability before ultimately closing at 100% in favor of the home side. Kansas City struck first with two runs in the top of the first and added single runs in the third and fourth innings, building an early 4-2 advantage that kept the Twins in a reactive posture through the middle innings. Minnesota gradually clawed back, scoring twice in the fourth and once in the fifth before the decisive moment arrived in the bottom of the sixth.
That sixth inning effectively sealed the outcome. With Chris Stratton on the mound for Kansas City, Carlos Correa laced a triple that swung win probability by 28.7 percentage points, the single largest play of the game. Max Kepler followed with a single worth an additional 12.5 percentage points, and when the inning concluded the Twins had plated four runs to take a lead they would not relinquish. Earlier damage came courtesy of Ryan Jeffers, who went deep twice off Daniel Lynch IV, a home run in the fourth adding 14.2 percentage points and another in the fifth worth 12.3 percentage points. Kyle Farmer was also hit by a pitch in the fourth that registered a 10.4-point swing as Minnesota began its comeback.
Correa finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-29.3 percent alongside a RE24 of plus-2.2, while Jeffers posted plus-26.0 percent WPA and led all batters with a RE24 of plus-2.4, his two-homer performance the structural backbone of the Twins' rally. Max Kepler contributed plus-12.2 percent WPA. Out of the bullpen, Jorge Alcala led Minnesota's relievers at plus-5.0 percent WPA, followed by Griffin Jax at plus-4.5 percent and Caleb Thielbar at plus-2.9 percent, a trio that protected the one-run lead through the final innings despite Kansas City scoring twice in the ninth to make the final margin closer than the game's late trajectory suggested.