Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-2 at Citi Field on May 30, 2024, in a game that was tightly contested through the middle innings before the Mets pulled away in the late stages. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the home side holding an even 50 percent win probability, and that figure climbed to 100 percent by the final out. Arizona managed just four hits and scored both of its runs in the third inning, while New York answered with a run in each of the third, seventh, and eighth frames.

The decisive sequence was rooted in the third inning and completed with a late-game dagger. Ketel Marte gave Arizona a temporary two-run cushion with a double off Christian Scott in the top of the third, a swing that shifted win probability 14.2 points in the Diamondbacks' favor. Francisco Lindor immediately countered for the Mets in the bottom half, connecting on a home run off Brandon Hughes that moved the needle 10.6 points back toward New York. Lindor remained the central force for the Mets throughout, and his seventh-inning single against Ryan Thompson added another 14.2 points of win probability. The knockout blow came in the eighth, when J.D. Martinez launched a home run off Thompson that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate 21.4 points toward New York, effectively settling the outcome.

Lindor finished as the most impactful offensive player in the game by a significant margin, posting a combined WPA of plus 30.7 and a RE24 of plus 2.5. Martinez contributed plus 18.4 WPA and was the author of the game's single most consequential at-bat. On the pitching side, Justin Martinez led all pitchers with plus 20.3 WPA, followed by Reed Garrett at plus 15.2, who navigated a difficult ninth despite issuing a walk to Christian Walker that briefly registered plus 10.6 points in Arizona's favor. Adrian Houser added plus 12.6 WPA as the Mets' staff held the Diamondbacks scoreless over the final six innings.