Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the San Diego Padres a lopsided 9-1 defeat at Petco Park on May 29, 2024, turning what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 69 percent pre-game home win probability into a complete collapse, with that figure falling to zero by the final out. Miami scattered 16 hits against San Diego's pitching staff while committing no errors, while the Padres were undone by two errors and an inability to keep Marlins hitters off base throughout the afternoon.

The game's decisive moments arrived early and compounded quickly. In the top of the second, Bryan De La Cruz's pop out represented a missed opportunity for Miami, but Jackson Merrill's groundout in the bottom half off Braxton Garrett proved to be the single most impactful play of the game by win probability, swinging 11.6 percent against San Diego and effectively snuffing out any developing Padres threat. Ha-Seong Kim answered in the bottom of the third with a home run off Garrett worth 9.4 percent in win probability, providing San Diego's lone moment of optimism, but an error on Yu Darvish in the top of that same inning had already shifted 8.5 percent toward Miami. Jake Burger then extended the damage with a single off Stephen Kolek in the fifth, pushing the Marlins' cushion further as they scored three runs in that frame alone.

Braxton Garrett was the standout performer of the night, posting a remarkable plus-24.3 percent WPA on the mound and holding San Diego largely in check despite the Kim home run. Among Miami's position players, Otto Lopez led all batters with plus-10.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4, while Nick Gordon contributed plus-8.9 percent WPA and Josh Bell added plus-7.9 percent WPA to round out a balanced offensive effort. The DiamondIQ model leans heavily toward Garrett's dominance as the central factor in flipping what appeared to be a strong San Diego advantage into an emphatic Marlins road win.