MLB Recap · May 29, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

LAD10
Final
NYM3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAD01011006110160
NYM000030000392

The Story

The Los Angeles Dodgers handed the New York Mets a 10-3 defeat at Citi Field on May 29, 2024, dropping the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win from 32% before first pitch to 0% by the final out. Los Angeles collected 16 hits against a Mets club that was also undone by two errors, while the Dodgers played clean defensively. The game was not decided in a single moment but rather through two pivotal half-innings that broke what had been a competitive contest.

The Mets briefly seized momentum in the bottom of the fifth when Tomás Nido connected for a home run off Elieser Hernández, a swing that added 18.2 percentage points to New York's win probability and represented the high-water mark of the home team's evening. The Dodgers had answered incrementally through four innings, but the decisive blow came in the top of the eighth, when Los Angeles battered Adam Ottavino for a six-run frame. Will Smith's home run off Ottavino was the single most impactful play of the game, adding 18.7 percentage points to the Dodgers' win probability. Jason Heyward followed with a triple worth 11.1 percentage points, and Miguel Rojas added a single that pushed the swing to another 11.4 points, effectively draining whatever probability remained for a Mets comeback.

On an individual level, Smith finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor with a WPA of plus-28.4 and an RE24 of plus-2.2, reflecting both his clutch home run and his broader plate contributions across the night. Nido led all Mets hitters with a WPA of plus-19.0 and an RE24 of plus-1.8, though his efforts were ultimately overwhelmed by the Dodgers' late surge. Among Los Angeles pitchers, Jake Diekman, Blake Treinen, and Anthony Banda each locked down innings effectively, posting WPA figures of plus-8.8, plus-8.3, and plus-7.1 respectively, helping preserve what became a comfortable final margin.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAD bats firstFinalNYM win %LAD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 32.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Will Smith Home Run
Top 8th · off Adam Ottavino
+18.7%
Tomás Nido Home Run
Bot 5th · off Elieser Hernández
+18.2%
Miguel Rojas Single
Top 8th · off Adam Ottavino
+11.4%
Jason Heyward Triple
Top 8th · off Adam Ottavino
+11.1%
Shohei Ohtani Single
Top 5th · off David Peterson
+9.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Will Smith+28.4%+2.2 RE24
Tomás Nido+19.0%+1.8 RE24
Jason Heyward+11.1%+1.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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