MLB Recap · May 29, 2024

Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

OAK3
Final
TB4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
OAK000101010360
TB000101101491

The Story

Tampa Bay held off Oakland 4-3 at Tropicana Field on May 29, 2024, in a game that remained tightly contested deep into the ninth inning before the Rays secured the win. The DiamondIQ model opened the night with a 62 percent home win probability for Tampa Bay, and while that edge proved correct, it took until the final out for the model's estimate to reach 100 percent.

The game's decisive sequence unfolded across the final two innings, driven largely by the contest's most impactful at-bats. In the top of the ninth, Miguel Andujar delivered a double off Pete Fairbanks that shifted win probability by plus 17.5 percent in Oakland's favor, briefly threatening to upend Tampa Bay's lead. The Rays answered emphatically in the bottom half against Michael Kelly, as Amed Rosario's double registered an identical plus 17.5 percent swing, followed moments later by Jose Siri's single at plus 16.4 percent, sealing the outcome. Brandon Lowe's triple off Joey Estes in the fourth inning had earlier provided Tampa Bay with critical early leverage, adding plus 17.2 percent, while Jonathan Aranda's sixth-inning single off Tyler Ferguson at plus 12.5 percent extended the cushion.

Andujar finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus 33.1 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.4, though his effort came in a losing cause. Lowe paced the Rays offensively at plus 21.9 percent WPA and plus 1.7 RE24, while Siri added plus 19.4 percent. On the mound, Estes led all pitchers with a plus 15.9 percent WPA contribution for Oakland, followed by Tampa Bay's Fairbanks at plus 13.5 percent and Scott Alexander at plus 11.3 percent.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025OAK bats firstFinalTB win %OAK win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 61.8% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Amed Rosario Double
Bot 9th · off Michael Kelly
+17.5%
Miguel Andujar Double
Top 9th · off Pete Fairbanks
+17.5%
Brandon Lowe Triple
Bot 4th · off Joey Estes
+17.2%
Jose Siri Single
Bot 9th · off Michael Kelly
+16.4%
Jonathan Aranda Single
Bot 6th · off Tyler Ferguson
+12.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Miguel Andujar+33.1%+1.4 RE24
Brandon Lowe+21.9%+1.7 RE24
Jose Siri+19.4%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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