Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners walked off the Houston Astros 2-1 in ten innings on May 29, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, completing a low-scoring grind that the DiamondIQ model had initially framed as a 65 percent home-team proposition before finishing at a certainty. Neither club scored until the fourth inning, when Houston pushed across its lone run, and Seattle answered in the fifth to force extra innings. The game remained deadlocked through nine more frames before the Mariners broke through in the tenth to secure the win.

The decisive sequence unfolded across the final two innings and featured some of the sharpest win-probability swings of the night. In the bottom of the ninth, Josh Hader drew a strikeout from Ryan Bliss that shifted the outcome needle by 19.0 percent in Houston's favor, representing the single most damaging moment for Seattle in the entire contest. Ty France responded immediately with a walk off Hader, reversing that damage by 19.0 percent and keeping the Mariners alive. Jose Altuve's groundout leading off the top of the tenth added 14.3 percent to Seattle's chances by ending the Houston half quickly, and J.P. Crawford followed with a sacrifice fly off Tayler Scott worth 15.9 percent. Dominic Canzone then delivered the walk-off groundout against Scott, a play that added 19.5 percent to Seattle's win probability and closed the game.

Canzone finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 26.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.9, while France contributed plus 16.1 percent despite minimal extra-base production. On the pitching side, Justin Verlander was the most impactful arm of the night regardless of outcome, posting plus 32.1 percent WPA for Houston. Andrés Muñoz added plus 13.5 percent for Seattle, and Bryan Abreu contributed plus 10.9 percent, though the Astros ultimately could not generate the offense necessary to support their staff in extras.