Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 4 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins defeated the Cleveland Guardians 4-2 on April 7, 2024, at Target Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 52 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Minnesota built its lead methodically, scoring in the first, second, and fourth innings before Cleveland finally broke through in the seventh. The Twins finished with eight hits against five for Cleveland, committing one error to Cleveland's none.
The pivotal swing came in the top of the seventh, when Brayan Rocchio connected for a home run off Jorge Alcala, a play that added 18.2 percent to Cleveland's win probability and represented the single largest win-probability shift of the game. That cut the deficit to 3-2 and briefly brought the Guardians within reach, but Max Kepler answered immediately in the bottom half with a double off Eli Morgan that added 6.6 percent to Minnesota's win probability and effectively re-established the Twins' cushion. Earlier, Ryan Jeffers had done damage with a solo home run off Joey Cantillo in the fourth inning worth 8.9 percent, and Carlos Santana had extended the lead with a home run off Cantillo in the second, a swing valued at 6.7 percent. A Royce Lewis double play in the third cost Minnesota 6.1 percent in win probability but proved inconsequential given the broader offensive output.
Bailey Ober was the standout performer of the game by a wide margin, generating 26.7 percent in win probability for Minnesota's pitching staff. Griffin Jax added 8.1 percent and Jhoan Duran closed with 6.3 percent, the bullpen combination securing the final two innings without incident. Among position players, Willi Castro led all batters with 8.2 percent in WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.3, while Carlos Santana posted 8.0 percent and a RE24 of plus-0.8. Rocchio's home run headline obscures a slightly more modest overall WPA of 6.9 percent, reflecting how the game ultimately remained out of Cleveland's grasp despite that momentary surge.