Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

Cincinnati closed out a 6-2 victory over San Diego at Peoria Stadium on March 6, 2024, erasing the Padres' pre-game 54% win probability entirely by the final out. The Reds built their margin steadily, scoring in four of the first five innings while holding San Diego to a pair of runs, finishing with ten hits and no errors against five hits and no errors for the hosts.

The decisive sequences came in the third inning, where Christian Encarnacion-Strand delivered the game's single most impactful swing, a home run off Randy Vásquez that shifted win probability 16.7 points in Cincinnati's favor. San Diego answered in the bottom half when Jake Cronenworth doubled off Graham Ashcraft to swing the needle 10.1 points back toward the Padres, but Stuart Fairchild countered with a solo home run off Vásquez in the fourth that added another 8.9 points to Cincinnati's column and effectively shut the door on any Padres rally. An earlier strikeout of Nick Martini by Vásquez in the first had nudged Cincinnati's edge by 4.5 points, while Jackson Merrill's lineout in the second cost San Diego 4.4 points of win probability they could not recover.

Among individual performers, Carson Spiers led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 17.1%, and Graham Ashcraft contributed plus 5.7% despite surrendering the Cronenworth double. On the offensive side, Encarnacion-Strand finished with a WPA of plus 16.1% and a RE24 of plus 1.3, Fairchild posted plus 11.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.4, and Cronenworth's plus 13.8% WPA and plus 1.3 RE24 stood as the lone bright spot in a San Diego lineup that otherwise generated little against Cincinnati's pitching staff.