MLB Recap · March 6, 2024

Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

BOS1
Final
MIN7

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS010000000170
MIN00320200-791

The Story

The Minnesota Twins handled the Boston Red Sox 7-1 on March 6, 2024, at Lee Health Sports Complex, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a near-even contest — a 54 percent home win probability — into a complete rout, with the model's estimate reaching 100 percent by the final out. Minnesota did its most decisive damage in the third and fourth innings, transforming a one-run Boston lead into an insurmountable advantage through a pair of home runs and sustained pressure against Red Sox pitching.

The turning point arrived in the bottom of the third, when Edouard Julien connected for a home run off Cooper Criswell, a swing that shifted win probability by 19.9 percent in Minnesota's favor and effectively erased Boston's early edge. Jair Camargo amplified that inning further with a double off Criswell worth 9.1 percent in win probability, then returned in the fourth to drive a home run off Cam Booser for an additional 14.6 percent swing. The only moment Boston briefly seized momentum came in the top of the second, when Wilyer Abreu took Joe Ryan deep for a solo shot that added 5.0 percent to the Red Sox win probability, accounting for the game's lone Boston run.

Camargo finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-23.9 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.6, while Julien contributed plus-19.0 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24. On the mound, Matt Canterino led Minnesota's pitching staff with plus-5.4 percent WPA, followed by Jhoan Duran at plus-3.5 percent and Justin Topa at plus-3.3 percent, as the Twins bullpen preserved the six-run margin without incident across the game's later frames.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalMIN win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Edouard Julien Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Cooper Criswell
+19.9%
Jair Camargo Home Run
Bot 4th · off Cam Booser
+14.6%
Jair Camargo Double
Bot 3rd · off Cooper Criswell
+9.1%
Wilyer Abreu Home Run
Top 2nd · off Joe Ryan
+5.0%
Carlos Santana Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Cooper Criswell
-4.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Jair Camargo+23.9%+3.6 RE24
Edouard Julien+19.0%+1.6 RE24
Kyle Farmer+1.3%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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