Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals handed the Miami Marlins a 9-3 defeat at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 6, 2024, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Miami down to zero by the final out. Washington posted all nine of its runs across the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth innings, while Miami committed three errors that compounded the damage from Jesús Luzardo's difficult afternoon on the mound.

The third inning served as the decisive turning point, with back-to-back home runs off Luzardo swinging the game firmly toward Washington. Luis García Jr. connected for a home run that added 13.9 percent win probability in the Nationals' favor, followed shortly by Victor Robles adding another 8.5 percent with a home run of his own. Dylan Crews then extended the lead in the fourth with a home run off Luzardo that shifted win probability by 17.7 percent, the single largest play of the game by that measure. Crews also benefited from a fifth-inning fielding error off Austin Roberts that pushed Washington's advantage further by 7.3 percent. Griffin Conine provided Miami's most impactful moment with a home run off Patrick Corbin in the bottom of the third that added 15.7 percent win probability for the Marlins, but the offense could not sustain that momentum against a Washington team that finished with 12 hits and no errors.

Crews led all players by WPA at plus-31.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.9, reflecting his outsized influence on the game's outcome. García Jr. finished at plus-12.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Conine's plus-15.5 percent WPA and RE24 of plus-1.0 made him Miami's lone standout despite the loss. On the pitching side, Derek Law paced Washington's relievers at plus-1.6 percent WPA as the bullpen secured the final innings with little resistance from the Marlins.