Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Chicago White Sox 12-9 on March 6, 2024, at Camelback Ranch, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a White Sox win opening at 54% before Los Angeles methodically dismantled that advantage across nine innings. The Dodgers finished with 12 runs on 12 hits, while the White Sox answered with 9 runs on 11 hits, but Los Angeles controlled the decisive moments when they mattered most.

The single largest win-probability swing came in the top of the fourth inning, when Freddie Freeman connected on a home run off Touki Toussaint that shifted the win probability by plus 36.7 percent in the Dodgers' favor. Freeman finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 40.9 percent with a RE24 of plus 4.2, making him the clear catalyst for the victory. Chicago responded in the bottom of the fourth when Eloy Jiménez hit a home run off Ryan Brasier, a swing worth plus 22.0 percent for the White Sox, and Jiménez finished second among all batters at plus 26.7 percent WPA and plus 2.7 RE24. Paul DeJong had also kept Chicago competitive earlier with a two-out double off Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the third that added plus 16.4 percent, finishing at plus 21.7 percent WPA for the game.

Los Angeles continued to pull away in the fifth inning on singles by Andy Pages off Nicholas Padilla and Austin Barnes off Toussaint, worth plus 10.9 and plus 9.4 percent respectively, extending the lead before the White Sox could mount a sustained threat. On the pitching side, T.J. McFarland led the Dodgers' bullpen contributors with plus 6.3 percent WPA, followed by Gus Varland at plus 6.0 percent and Joe Kelly at plus 5.6 percent, collectively preserving enough cushion to see the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Chicago win fall all the way to zero percent by the final out.