Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers shut out the Cincinnati Reds 2-0 on March 6, 2024, at Goodyear Ballpark, holding Cincinnati to five hits while committing no errors against a Reds team that made two. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Cincinnati holding a 54% win probability at home, but that figure eroded steadily and reached 0% by the final out as Milwaukee's pitching staff controlled the game from start to finish. Bryse Wilson led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-17.6%, followed by Kevin Herget at plus-13.3% and Harold Chirino at plus-8.8%, a collective effort that never allowed the Reds to mount a credible threat.

The game's decisive moments were concentrated in the fifth inning and the final out. Andruw Monasterio delivered the single swing with the highest offensive impact for Milwaukee, his fifth-inning single off Brent Suter carrying a win-probability gain of plus-10.6%, helping push across what would prove to be critical insurance. On the Cincinnati side, Jake Fraley's fifth-inning double off J.B. Bukauskas generated a plus-7.9% swing in the Reds' favor, briefly tightening things, but Luke Maile's pop out in that same frame immediately erased the momentum, swinging the probability back minus-7.4%. The game was effectively sealed when Austin Callahan struck out to end the ninth, a play that added plus-12.0% to Milwaukee's win probability and closed the door on any Cincinnati comeback.

Among the game's top individual performers by WPA, Fraley finished as the leading batter at plus-10.8% with a RE24 of plus-1.0, making him Cincinnati's most impactful offensive contributor despite the loss. Callahan followed at plus-9.3% for Milwaukee, his strikeout in the ninth the game's single most consequential defensive moment, and Monasterio checked in at plus-9.1% with a RE24 of plus-0.4 to round out the top three. Cincinnati's two errors compounded an already difficult evening against a Brewers club that executed cleanly on both sides of the ball.