New York Yankees at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the New York Yankees 5-4 at Clover Park on March 5, 2024, holding on through a tense final two innings to secure the win. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Mets a 54% win probability as the home side, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting just how thoroughly New York's National League club controlled the decisive moments despite the Yankees making a late push.

The pivotal sequence came in the third inning, when the Mets plated all five of their runs in a single frame, establishing a lead that proved durable for the remainder of the game. The Yankees mounted their most credible threat in the fifth inning, when Trent Grisham's single off Phil Bickford added 13.6% to New York's win probability and helped set off a three-run rally that made it a one-run game. The Yankees continued to pressure in the eighth and ninth innings, but key at-bats unraveled their comeback. Jahmai Jones grounded into a double play against Chad Smith in the eighth, a swing of negative 16.4% in win probability that effectively stalled New York's momentum. In the ninth, Kevin Smith's flyout off Yohan Ramirez dropped the Yankees' chances by another 15.2%, and Brandon Lockridge's strikeout to end the game cost a further 14.6%, though Max Burt's hit by pitch had briefly injected life into the frame with a 15.2% swing.

Among the game's top individual performers, Jose Rojas led all batters with a WPA of plus 16.8% and an RE24 of plus 0.8, while Trent Grisham posted a WPA of plus 10.5% and the highest RE24 among top batters at plus 0.9, underlining his importance in the Yankees' fifth-inning surge. On the pitching side, Yohan Ramirez finished as the top contributor for the Mets with a WPA of plus 15.2%, navigating a difficult ninth inning to preserve the victory. David Griffin added plus 9.8% and Tylor Megill contributed plus 8.2%, supporting a Mets pitching staff that ultimately held firm when the margin was thinnest.