Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers defeated the Boston Red Sox 2-1 on March 4, 2024, at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Detroit scored its runs in the second and fifth innings while Boston managed just four hits and committed one error across nine innings.

The pivotal sequence of the game unfolded in the fifth inning when Riley Greene drew a walk off Joe Jacques that carried a win-probability swing of plus-13.2 percent, the single largest positive play of the contest by that measure. That moment effectively extended Detroit's cushion at a critical point and proved to be the decisive blow. Boston had briefly responded in the top of the fourth when Ceddanne Rafaela connected on a home run off Tyler Holton for a plus-11.4 percent swing, giving the Red Sox their only run of the afternoon. The visitors mounted a threat in the top of the seventh, where Reese McGuire's double off Ty Madden registered a plus-9.8 percent swing, but Nick Yorke struck out and Bobby Dalbec flied out in back-to-back at-bats, each costing Boston 7.9 percent in win probability and ending the rally.

On the pitching side, Ty Madden led all pitchers with a plus-15.8 percent WPA, navigating the seventh-inning threat with composure, while Mason Englert contributed plus-15.2 percent and Andrew Vasquez added plus-10.8 percent as Detroit's bullpen collectively preserved the one-run lead. Greene finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-11.8 percent with a plus-0.8 RE24, followed by Rafaela at plus-8.0 percent and Corey Rosier at plus-7.9 percent for Boston.