Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Atlanta Braves 4-3 on March 4, 2024, at Lee Health Sports Complex, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Atlanta struck first with two runs in the opening inning, but Minnesota methodically erased that deficit and pulled ahead for good through a sequence of high-leverage home runs in the middle innings.

The decisive stretch came in the fourth and fifth innings, where the Twins authored three consecutive long balls that fundamentally shifted the game. Willi Castro's home run off Dylan Lee in the fourth added 12.3 percent to Minnesota's win probability, and Ryan Jeffers followed almost immediately with another shot off Lee worth 11.3 percent. Carlos Santana then extended the lead in the fifth with a home run off Grant Holmes that represented a 13.4 percent swing, the single largest positive play of the game. A Dylan Neuse single in the seventh off Jake Walsh added another 10.7 percent cushion as the Twins methodically closed the door. Atlanta's best threat came in the ninth, but J.P. Martínez grounded out against Hobie Harris, a play that carried a 13.5 percent negative swing for the Braves and effectively ended any remaining hope of a comeback.

On the mound, AJ Smith-Shawver led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-18.7 percent, followed by Joe Gunkel at plus-15.8 percent and Hobie Harris at plus-14.4 percent, the trio collectively anchoring a Minnesota pitching effort that allowed just three runs on nine Atlanta hits. Neuse, Santana, and Castro paced the Twins' offensive contributors by win probability added, each providing both the power and the situational hitting that defined Minnesota's victory.