Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 3-2 at CoolToday Park on March 3, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game at 54% in favor of the home side and closing at 100% after Atlanta secured the final out.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the sixth inning, when Orlando Arcia connected on a home run off Paxton Thompson, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 25.7 percentage points and effectively seized control of the game for Atlanta. The Phillies had briefly threatened in the fourth, when Alec Bohm singled off Aaron Bummer to generate an 11.0-point swing in Philadelphia's favor, and the visitors pushed two runs across that frame to take a 2-1 lead. Atlanta answered with a run of its own in the fourth on a Forrest Wall single off Noah Skirrow, then erased Philadelphia's advantage entirely with that two-run sixth. An Erick Brito walk off Joe Jimenez in the top of the eighth moved the needle another 10.1 points toward Philadelphia, but the threat went unrealized, and in the ninth Esteban Quiroz grounded into a double play off Jonathan Hughes, a sequence that cost the Phillies 15.7 points of win probability and ended their final realistic chance at a comeback.
Among the standout performers, Arcia led all batters with a plus 21.8 WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, while Bohm posted plus 14.9 WPA and a team-best plus 1.7 RE24 despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Hughes led pitchers with plus 15.2 WPA, supported by Jimenez at plus 10.8 and Pierce Johnson at plus 8.5, as Atlanta's bullpen held firm through the final frames to preserve the one-run victory.