Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-2 at LECOM Park on March 3, 2024, handing the Pirates a loss despite Pittsburgh entering as slight favorites according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, which placed the pre-game home win probability at 54 percent. Baltimore's offense was quiet through much of the game, managing just a Colton Cowser home run off Martín Pérez in the third inning to account for the Orioles' lone early run, but the bullpen held the game close enough for the offense to deliver a decisive late push.
The pivotal sequence came in the final two innings. Kyle Stowers delivered a single off Josh Fleming in the top of the eighth that shifted win probability 15.9 percent in Baltimore's favor, and TT Bowens then delivered the knockout blow in the top of the ninth with a three-run home run off Dauri Moreta that swung win probability by 38.5 percent, the single largest play of the game by that measure. That blast extended Baltimore's lead to 5-1 and effectively closed the door, dropping the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh win to zero percent. Pittsburgh's lone bright spot came in the bottom of the seventh, when Abrahan Gutierrez singled off Cade Povich to drive in a run and generate a 15.1 percent swing, briefly keeping Pittsburgh within reach before Baltimore's ninth-inning surge.
Bowens finished as the game's top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting a plus-38.5 percent win probability added and a plus-2.4 RE24. Gutierrez was the most impactful Pirate, contributing plus-16.0 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, while Stowers added plus-15.4 percent WPA for Baltimore. On the mound, Bryan Baker led Baltimore's relievers with plus-9.0 percent WPA, with Ryan Borucki and Ryan Watson each contributing plus-7.1 percent as the Orioles' bullpen preserved the lead through the middle innings.