Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Arizona Diamondbacks a 10-4 defeat at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 3, 2024, scoring in three separate innings to pull away convincingly. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game giving Arizona a 54% win probability, but that edge evaporated quickly and finished at 0% as Milwaukee's offense surged across the middle frames. The Brewers plated three runs in the first, then added three more in the fifth and another three in the sixth to put the game out of reach, while the Diamondbacks managed a pair in the first and scattered runs in the third and eighth for their only offense.

The decisive stretch came in the fifth inning, where Christian Arroyo's single off Bryce Jarvis carried the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 19.9%, followed closely by Garrett Mitchell's double off the same pitcher at plus 11.9%. Those two blows effectively broke the game open against Jarvis, who also surrendered Jeferson Quero's home run in the sixth for a plus 9.2% swing. Arizona's brightest moment came in the bottom of the third, when Gabriel Moreno connected for a home run off Freddy Peralta, registering a plus 11.2% win-probability shift that briefly kept the D-backs relevant. A fifth-inning groundout by Joey Wiemer was the game's most damaging out for Milwaukee, costing the Brewers 8.7% in win probability.

Among individual performers, Arroyo led all position players with a plus 17.6% WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, while Mitchell added plus 15.2% WPA and plus 1.5 RE24 to anchor Milwaukee's offensive output. Moreno was Arizona's lone standout, posting plus 11.7% WPA and plus 1.4 RE24 on the strength of his home run. On the mound, DL Hall was the top pitching contributor with plus 11.3% WPA, supported by Conor Grammes at plus 5.7% and Peralta at plus 1.9%, a collective effort that limited real damage despite Milwaukee's errors-free defense against an Arizona club that committed two.