Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | 3 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Minnesota Twins 3-2 on March 2, 2024, at BayCare Ballpark, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win opening at 54% and closing at 100% by game's end. The contest was relatively quiet through six innings, with Minnesota scoring in the second and third and Philadelphia matching a run in the second, leaving the game tied at two heading into the seventh.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the seventh, when Felix Reyes delivered a double off Jordan Balazovic that shifted win probability by plus 32.3 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game and the play that ultimately proved to be the difference. Minnesota had its chances to respond but squandered them, most critically in the top of the ninth when Aaron Sabato grounded into a double play off Andrew Baker, a sequence that cost the Twins 26.3 percentage points of win probability. An earlier double play by Matt Wallner in the fifth against Gregory Soto had similarly stalled a Twins rally, draining another 12.5 points from their chances. Ryan Jeffers provided Minnesota's brightest offensive moment, hitting a home run off José Alvarado in the third that added 10.9 points to their win probability and accounted for the bulk of his team-high plus 17.6 WPA on the day.
On the Philadelphia side, Andrew Baker was the standout on the mound, posting plus 15.2 WPA in his appearance, while Tyler McKay contributed plus 10.8 WPA and Daniel Duarte added plus 7.9. Reyes finished as the game's top performer overall at plus 32.3 WPA and plus 1.8 RE24, his seventh-inning double the lone swing that separated these two otherwise evenly matched clubs across nine innings.