MLB Recap · March 2, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

PIT7
Final
DET3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PIT100050001771
DET000210000320

The Story

The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Detroit Tigers a 7-3 defeat on March 2, 2024, at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had opened as a 54 percent home win probability for Detroit and closing it to zero by the final out. Pittsburgh scratched across a run in the first inning before the game turned decisively in the fifth, when a seven-run frame dismantled any realistic path back for the Tigers. The Pirates finished with seven hits against Detroit's two, and Detroit committed no errors while Pittsburgh was charged with one.

The fifth inning was the unambiguous hinge of the game. Jack Suwinski's single off Andrew Magno represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 14.3 percent, and Alika Williams followed with a single off Jason Foley that added another 11.5 percent. Those back-to-back hits helped blow the game open and accounted for the bulk of Pittsburgh's five runs in the frame, with the Pirates tacking on one more in the ninth for good measure. Detroit's most consequential positive moment came a half-inning earlier, in the bottom of the fourth, when Zach McKinstry and Riley Greene drew back-to-back walks off Brady Feigl worth plus 11.3 and plus 10.6 percent respectively, briefly sustaining hope before the Pittsburgh fifth rendered it moot. Eliezer Alfonzo's sixth-inning double play off Chase Anderson, costing Detroit 11.9 percent in win probability, further extinguished any remaining threat.

By the DiamondIQ model's individual accounting, Zach McKinstry led all position players at plus 16.1 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, while Suwinski finished at plus 15.3 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24. Williams contributed plus 9.1 percent WPA and 0.5 RE24 on the offensive side. On the mound, Chase Anderson paced Pittsburgh's pitching staff at plus 12.3 percent WPA, supported by Roansy Contreras at plus 10.1 percent and Ryder Ryan at plus 7.6 percent, collectively holding Detroit to just two hits over the game's final stretches.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PIT bats firstFinalDET win %PIT win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jack Suwinski Single
Top 5th · off Andrew Magno
+14.3%
Eliezer Alfonzo Grounded Into DP
Bot 6th · off Chase Anderson
-11.9%
Alika Williams Single
Top 5th · off Jason Foley
+11.5%
Bot 4th · off Brady Feigl
+11.3%
Riley Greene Walk
Bot 4th · off Brady Feigl
+10.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Zach McKinstry+16.1%+1.6 RE24
Jack Suwinski+15.3%+1.4 RE24
Alika Williams+9.1%+0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →