San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the San Francisco Giants 3-2 on March 2, 2024, at Scottsdale Stadium, handing the home side a loss after the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54 percent pre-game win probability for San Francisco. The Padres scored in the third, seventh, and ninth innings while holding the Giants scoreless until a two-run Giants rally in the bottom of the eighth briefly tightened the contest.

The decisive moment came in the top of the ninth when Marcos Castañon delivered a single off Ethan Small that carried the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 22.5 percent, pushing San Diego ahead by a run and eventually securing the final margin. The Giants mounted a response in the bottom half, but it fell short. Chase Pinder's single off Logan Gillaspie in the eighth had already shifted momentum toward San Francisco at plus 17.4 percent, and Ismael Munguia's groundout to close the ninth registered as the game's second-largest swing at plus 18.8 percent, reflecting how close San Diego came to surrendering the lead before Jeremiah Estrada retired the side. Tyler Fitzgerald's flyout in the ninth and Otto Lopez's lineout in the seventh each represented the Giants' most damaging missed opportunities, costing San Francisco 14.9 and 14.5 percent in win probability respectively.

On the mound, Robby Snelling led all pitchers with plus 13.0 percent in win-probability contribution, followed by Michael King at plus 12.3 percent and Stephen Kolek at plus 8.8 percent, the latter ending the Giants' seventh-inning threat with the Lopez lineout. Castañon and Pinder each finished with plus 0.9 RE24 to pace the Padres offensively, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for San Francisco, a complete reversal from where things stood at first pitch.