Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Washington Nationals 4-2 on March 2, 2024, at JetBlue Park, turning what began as a competitive game into a comfortable home victory. The DiamondIQ model opened with Boston favored at 54% pre-game win probability, and by game's end that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting just how decisively the Red Sox controlled the late innings after Washington posted two runs in the top of the second.

The decisive turning point came in the bottom of the sixth, when Cutter Coffey connected on a home run off Cole Henry, a swing that shifted win probability by 27.2 percentage points and effectively flipped the game's dynamic in Boston's favor. Henry surrendered another home run the following inning, this one to Tyler Miller, which added another 11.9 percentage points to the Red Sox ledger and pushed the Nationals out of realistic contention. Washington briefly threatened in the seventh when Alex Call doubled off Brennan Bernardino, generating a 9.8-point swing, but the rally stalled without further damage. Earlier negative swings for Boston, including Ceddanne Rafaela's flyout in the second and Nasim Nuñez's groundout in the fifth, had kept the door open for the Nationals, only for Coffey's blast to close it emphatically.

Coffey finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 28.9% with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Miller and Alex Call each posted plus 1.0 RE24 figures to round out the offensive contributors. On the mound, Tanner Houck led Boston's pitching staff with a WPA of plus 16.6%, followed by Thaddeus Ward at plus 13.0% and Bernardino at plus 8.5%, as the trio collectively held Washington's lineup to two runs on four hits while committing no errors.