Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 11-3 on March 2, 2024, at American Family Fields of Phoenix, turning what the DiamondIQ model had opened as a near coin-flip — 54 percent in favor of Milwaukee — into a complete rout, with the Brewers' final win probability collapsing to zero.

The game's decisive stretch came in the fourth inning, when the Dodgers piled on against Joel Payamps with back-to-back home runs. James Outman's blast led the way, swinging win probability 14.6 percent in Los Angeles's favor, and Miguel Vargas followed with a home run of his own that added another 8.9 percent swing, pushing the Dodgers' lead well past the point of recovery. The Brewers had briefly generated some threat in the third inning, when walks to Sal Frelick and Oliver Dunn off Eduardo Salazar shifted Milwaukee's win probability by 12.0 and 9.9 percent respectively, but a Joey Ortiz pop-out off Kyle Hurt in the second inning — costing the Brewers 8.8 percent in win probability — illustrated how consistently Los Angeles neutralized Milwaukee's attempts to build momentum. The Dodgers added four more runs in the seventh to finish with 11 on 13 hits with no errors, while the Brewers committed one error across their eight hits.

Outman led all players with a WPA of plus 17.1 percent and a RE24 of plus 3.4, while Vargas contributed plus 12.9 percent WPA and plus 2.9 RE24. On the Milwaukee side, Frelick posted the Brewers' best offensive mark at plus 15.6 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, though that output amounted to little in the final accounting. Kyle Hurt was the top-performing pitcher by WPA at plus 18.5 percent, with Devin Williams and Joe Kelly also contributing positively for Milwaukee out of the bullpen at plus 3.1 and plus 2.8 percent respectively.