Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | 3 | 1 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins defeated the Boston Red Sox 5-3 on March 1, 2024, at Lee Health Sports Complex, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Minnesota was largely in control after a pivotal third inning that broke the game open and proved to be the decisive stretch of the afternoon.
The third inning produced the single most consequential play of the contest. With the score tied 1-1 after two innings, Royce Lewis connected on a home run off Jordan DiValerio that shifted win probability by plus 26.5 percent in Minnesota's favor, and it headlined a four-run bottom of the third that put the Twins ahead 5-2. Boston did itself no favors in the top half of that same inning, as Wilyer Abreu's strikeout double play off Louis Varland cost the Red Sox 7.2 percent in win probability and stifled any offensive momentum before it could develop. Byron Buxton added to the damage with a bases-loaded walk off Lucas Giolito in the bottom half, worth plus 6.5 percent in win probability and further extending the Twins' cushion.
Royce Lewis finished as the game's standout performer with a plus 26.1 percent WPA and plus 2.6 RE24, while Buxton contributed plus 5.6 percent WPA and Edouard Julien added plus 4.5 percent WPA with a plus 1.0 RE24. On the mound, Louis Varland led all pitchers at plus 9.4 percent WPA, with Josh Staumont and Griffin Jax each contributing plus 5.0 percent WPA out of the bullpen. Boston's lone highlight in the late innings came when Mark Kolozsvary drew a walk off Staumont in the seventh, adding plus 4.8 percent in win probability, but a Mark Contreras flyout immediately surrendered 4.5 percent back, and the Red Sox managed only a single run in the ninth to close out a 5-3 final.